Mesothelioma and the Covid impact

Introduction

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) have released their report on the mesothelioma statistics (“the Report”) for Mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain 2025 which provides some useful insight into the effect of the Covid pandemic on the figures, in addition to mortality trends and future case projections. We have also analysed the statistics contained in the HSE Report on mesothelioma for 2024 to provide commentary on the Covid pandemic and mesothelioma deaths.

Mesothelioma

As we know, due to the widespread use of asbestos during the period of 1950 to 1980 and subsequent occupational exposure, annual deaths from mesothelioma increased steadily up until 2020.

How did the Covid pandemic impact the statistics?

During the period 2011 to 2020 the average number of deaths caused by mesothelioma annually was 2508. During 2021 the average death rate citing mesothelioma as a cause was 2290, lower than the previous years of 2012 to 2020. During 2023 there were 2,218 mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain, lower than 2022 where the number of mesothelioma related recorded deaths was recorded at 2280. The predicted number of deaths caused by mesothelioma was expected to level at 2500 annually but only up to 2020. Thereafter, based on deaths up and including 2017, a gradual decline was expected. However, when these predictions were recorded, a global pandemic would not have been in the minds of the analysts. So, how did the Covid pandemic impact the number of mesothelioma deaths, if at all?

We must question whether the HSE figures were distorted during the Covid pandemic due to:

• Direct effects — where those individuals diagnosed with mesothelioma contracted Covid and died sooner than anticipated.
• Indirect effects — where external factors affected health services, and effects on systems for recording and certifying deaths. For example, there was significant pressure on the death certification system during the Covid pandemic which may have delayed the registration of some deaths until after the cut off for inclusion in the initial release of the statistics. 
• Missed deaths — where individuals suffering symptoms of mesothelioma (but had not been formally diagnosed) then met their fate by contracting Covid.

HSE in their Report have compared those deaths registered during the Covid pandemic spikes of 2020 and 2021 where death certification recorded both mesothelioma and Covid. Interestingly:

• There is an absence of evidence to support any excess or deficit of deaths during the Covid spike periods of April to June 2020 and October 2020 to March 2021 when the different Covid variants were associated with substantial numbers of deaths nationally.
• Whether the pressure on the death certification system also impacted the recorded death figures. Given the statistics, the HSE Report concludes that the Covid pandemic did not have a substantial effect on the statistics due to increased late death registrations.
• The proportion of deaths occurring in 2020 that were registered in the same year (74.8%) and the year after (23.6%) were very similar to the equivalent figures for 2014-2018.
• During the Covid pandemic in 2021 the Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit figures were affected but, mesothelioma applications were unlikely to have been impacted due to the application prioritisation.

Comments

It appears from the figures that the pandemic did not have a significant impact on the number of deaths either way and that they were inline with predictions.

However, this is not what we have seen or clients who we have discussed the figures with. Whilst it must be acknowledged that any death from mesothelioma can lead to multiple claims, during and after the pandemic we saw a drop off in the number of claims intimated.

This year has seen an increase in the number of claims intimated and they are now back to or very near to pre pandemic levels. This does not fit well with the reported decline in mesothelioma deaths as reported by HSE.

We will watch the number of claims closely going forward to see if the expected drop of in deaths leads to fewer claims being made. Whilst not dealt with in the figures, one thing has certainly been true over the last few years, is that the average cost of each claim has increased considerably due to a significant inflation in the quantification of both general and special damages and costs of dealing with each claim.